…and it has us at the edge of our seats.
No doubt that this year we are going to hear a lot about the upcoming presidential election, most likely a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. While the election’s outcome will not be known for another 9 months, this presidential contest presents an interesting case study on two different brands of the future unfolding in front of us. This election year is also a likely a year of two competing stories about our future blitzing the media and vying for attention of those of us who are still yet to decide.
There are plenty of pundits out there who will speculate and analyze candidates’ and their parties’ odds and strategies in a substantial level of detail. The purpose of our blog is not to do that. Instead, we look at the presidential contest as a story-telling, marketing challenge. We are a market research tech company after all, so we are curious to see how marketers would use the data that is shaping our presidential elections to build the winning brand.
In this first blog, we start in the state of Michigan. Our pulse check studies are small in scope, but they are meant to go deep. The three questions we set out to answer in our pre-election Michigan pulse check were:
What impact would a 3rd major presidential candidate have on the US presidential elections?
What are the issues that are top of voter minds and how do voters align on them?
What stories can we see play out leading into November to sway voter’s decisions?
With that, let’s jump right into some of the key insights from this study. You can find more details in this online interactive presentation or by reaching out to us. We will be happy to share our data!
A 3rd party candidate will likely have a limited impact on the choice between Biden vs Trump.
It is virtually inevitable that the November contest will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. With all recent elections having been determined by small margins, a 3rd major candidate entering the race has the potential to swing the elections into one candidate’s favor. In our pulse check, we modeled hypothetical 3-person presidential ballots between Trump, Biden and one other candidate. The choices included Republicans, Democrats and independents running against the two incumbents. Our data shows that Michigan’s likely voters are unlikely to move their choice much regardless of who the 3rd candidate is.
While the impact of 3rd party candidates appears to be small, it also appears to slightly favor Joe Biden, particularly when the 3rd party candidate is a conservative (such as Ron DeSantis). However, even the strongest independent pick (Robert F. Kennedy Jr) appeals as much to Trump voters as to Biden voters. It seems that regardless of who the 3rd candidate might be, having a viable option besides Trump offers some conservative voters an off-ramp from being compelled to vote for the presumptive Republican candidate.
We also note that Republican and Democratic voters are supporting their candidates at 90% rate no matter who the 3rd party nominee may be, but independent voters are still very much in play in Michigan. While they appear to be breaking for Donald Trump now, on many issues independents are more closely aligned with the Democrats than with the Republicans. Notably, however, on the most important election issue today, the economy, Independents are leaning toward the Republicans narrative.
The economy is a dominant topic this year, but the border crisis and social issues also matter.
When we asked an open-ended question about the most important topics on voters’ minds, some of the most supported answers revolved around the economy. The economy is not the only theme that matters, of course: inequality, poverty, state of our democracy and education also matter to independent voters. On the social issues, independents are more aligned with Joe Biden voters. On economic topics and on border crisis, they are more aligned with the Republicans. As a matter of fact, out of the top 10 most important issues to independent voters, 6 were related to the economy.
The story on the economy that will resonate with independent voters will go a long way to win the election in November.
In this survey, we presented our respondents with historic data on inflation and unemployment and asked them for their reaction to what they see. Democratic voters see the story of the recent data as mostly positive, and they expect it to continue to improve. Republicans, on the other hand, see the data in a more negative light and they don’t expect the recent positive trends to continue.
What is interesting is the viewpoint of an independent voter. Independents tend to recognize the current economic story as more positive than Republicans although not as much as Democrats. However, on the question of their near future expectations, they are decidedly less convinced that the recovery will continue. Independents are the least likely to trust the economic data we presented to them. This is an important point in the context of where the independent voter stands: worried about the economy, acknowledging the positive trend but not quite convinced that the improvement we see today will continue.
Telling the winning story.
For presidential candidates, the challenge is to present the story to the independent voters that will sway them in their direction. Republicans may want to focus on the economic uncertainty lurking in the shadows: the national debt, the budget deficit, challenges in the foreign economies and an increasing cost of consumer borrowing.
Democrats, on the other hand, could point to the consumer prices stabilizing and unemployment rates reaching the historically low rates. They could point to the stock market growth, which represents the trust of the financial institutions in the strongest world’s economy. Both stories can be compelling with important facts supporting them. The building of the winning brands, however, is not only about facts, but about making an emotional connection to a story that the consumers (voters) can identify with.
Leading to the general elections in November, we will continue to tap into voters’ minds and watch with interest which of the two stories is finding the most traction, and potentially decide the country’s fate. How will the independent voters perceive the trends on the economy and how will they weigh them against the other social issues? We will tackle these topics in our next pulse check, perhaps by asking the voters in another battleground state.
Stay tuned…
